Kusakhazikika kwa msika ndi chimodzi mwa mawu ofala kwambiri pa moyo watsiku ndi tsiku wamalonda, ndipo nthawi yomweyo, ndi chimodzi mwa mawu olakwika kwambiri. Amalonda ambiri amaona kusakhazikika ngati chiwopsezo choyenera kupewedwa, chinthu chomwe chimasonyeza ngozi kapena kusakhazikika. Komabe, ubale ndi kusakhazikika umafotokoza bwino khalidwe la wamalonda kuposa njira yaukadaulo yomwe amagwiritsa ntchito. Kudziwa nthawi yomwe imagwira ntchito bwino kwa iwo, nthawi yomwe imafunika kusamala, komanso momwe mungasinthire malo ake poyang'anizana ndi mphamvu zosiyanasiyana za kusinthasintha ndi gawo lofunikira pa kayendetsedwe ka ntchito.
Kusinthasintha kwa zinthu sikwabwino kapena koipa mwachibadwa. Ndi khalidwe la msika. Chomwe chimatsimikizira magwiridwe antchito a wamalonda ndi kukonzekera kwawo.
Kodi kusakhazikika kwa msika n'chiyani ndipo kumawonekera bwanji?
Kusinthasintha kwa zinthu ndi muyeso wa momwe mtengo wa katundu umasinthira pakapita nthawi inayake. Kusinthasintha kwakukulu, mtengo umasintha mofulumira komanso molimbika. Kusinthasintha kotsika, kusinthasintha kumakhala kokhazikika komanso kodziwikiratu.
Masheya omwe amasinthasintha pakati pa R$20 ndi R$22 pamwezi amakhala ndi kusasinthasintha kochepa kwambiri kuposa omwe amasinthasintha pakati pa R$15 ndi R$40 nthawi yomweyo. Gawo lachiwirili limapereka mwayi waukulu wopeza kusintha kwa mitengo, komanso limawonjezera chiopsezo cha kutayika mwachangu ngati kasamalidwe sikakwanira.
Mu msika wazachuma, kusasinthasintha kumabwera kuchokera ku mitundu iwiri ikuluikulu. Kusasinthasintha kwa mbiri yakale kumawerengedwa kutengera deta yamitengo yakale, pogwiritsa ntchito njira yoyesera yoyezera kufalikira kwa phindu poyerekeza ndi avareji. Kusasinthasintha kotsimikizika, kumbali ina, kukuwonetsa chiyembekezo cha msika cha kusinthasintha kwamtsogolo, komwe kumachokera ku mitengo yosankha. Chomalizachi ndi chofunikira kwambiri chifukwa chimayembekezera malo oopsa asanafike pamatchati.
Kodi n’chiyani chimayambitsa kusakhazikika kwa zinthu ndipo n’chifukwa chiyani kusinthaku kumachitika pakapita nthawi?
Kusakhazikika kwa msika sikungobwera mwadzidzidzi. Kuli ndi zifukwa zodziwika bwino, ndipo kuzimvetsa kumathandiza amalonda kuyembekezera nthawi yosinthasintha kwakukulu ndikukonzekera pasadakhale.
Zisankho za banki yayikulu, makamaka za Federal Reserve ku US, ndi zina mwa zomwe zimayambitsa kwambiri. Pamene Fed ikukweza kapena kutsitsa chiwongola dzanja, zotsatira zake zimamveka nthawi yomweyo m'misika yonse yapadziko lonse. Kuphatikiza apo, deta yofunikira ya zachuma, monga ziwerengero za malipiro aku US, index ya inflation ya CPI, kapena GDP, imapanga kusintha kwakukulu panthawi yotulutsa, makamaka pamene ziwerengerozo zikusiyana ndi zomwe msika ukuyembekezera.
Zochitika zandale, monga mikangano, zilango, ndi kusintha kwa mfundo zamalonda pakati pa mayiko akuluakulu, zimawonjezeranso kusakhazikika kwachuma mwadzidzidzi. Mu 2020, US VIX inafika pa mfundo 82 panthawi ya mantha a mliriwu, mulingo wakale womwe unawonetsa kusatsimikizika kwa misika yapadziko lonse panthawiyo. Mavuto a liquidity, pomwe ndalama zambiri zimafunika kugulitsa malo mwachangu, zimapangitsanso mafunde osakhazikika omwe amakhudza katundu wosagwirizana ndi vuto loyambirira.
Kumbali ina, malo okhazikika pazachuma, kukula kodziwikiratu, ndi mfundo zomveka bwino zachuma nthawi zambiri zimaletsa kusakhazikika kwachuma. Munthawi imeneyi, msika umayenda molunjika, ndipo mitengo siimagwirizana kwambiri ndi nkhani.
Momwe mungayezerere kusasinthasintha: ATR, Bollinger Bands, ndi VIX
Wogulitsa amene amagwira ntchito mozindikira kusinthasintha kwa zinthu amagwiritsa ntchito zizindikiro zinazake kuti ayesere mphamvu yake ndikukonza zisankho zake malinga ndi momwe msika ulili.
ATR, kapena Average True Range, yopangidwa ndi J. Welles Wilder, imayesa kuchuluka kwa mayendedwe amitengo mkati mwa nthawi inayake, nthawi zambiri makandulo 14. ATR ikakwera, imasonyeza kuti msika ukuyenda mwamphamvu kwambiri. Ikagwa, imasonyeza kuti mayendedwewo ali okhazikika. Mwachizolowezi, ATR imagwiritsidwa ntchito kuyika kukula kwa kuyimitsa ndi zolinga mwanjira yogwirizana ndi kusakhazikika kwa katundu, kupewa kuyimitsa msanga komanso zolinga zosatheka.
Ma Bollinger Bands, nawonso, amakoka njira yozungulira mtengo kutengera kusintha kwa muyezo, nthawi zambiri kusintha kuwirikiza kawiri pamwamba ndi pansi pa avareji yosuntha ya nthawi 20. Ma band akamakula, kusasinthasintha kumakhala kwakukulu. Akatseka popanikizika, msika umasonkhanitsa mphamvu kuti usunthe kwambiri. Kachitidwe kameneka kotsatizana ndi kukulitsa ndi kamodzi mwazomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pakusanthula kwaukadaulo.
VIX, yomwe imadziwika kuti chizindikiro cha mantha, imayesa kusakhazikika komwe kukuyembekezeka pamsika wa S&P 500 m'masiku 30 otsatira. VIX yomwe ili pansi pa 20 imasonyeza msika wodekha. Pakati pa 20 ndi 30, kusamala ndi kusokonezeka pang'ono ndikofunikira. Pamwamba pa 30, mantha ndi msika womwe uli munthawi yamavuto akuwonetsedwa. Kwa amalonda aku Brazil, US VIX ndi chizindikiro chachindunji, chifukwa chimagwirizana ndi khalidwe la Ibovespa: mantha akakwera ku US, ndalama zimachoka m'misika yatsopano, ndikugwetsa msika wamasheya aku Brazil ndikuyika kukakamiza zenizeni.
Kodi wamalonda amasinthasintha bwanji malo ake m'malo osinthasintha kwambiri?
Kusakhazikika kwakukulu kwa msika kumafuna kusintha kwakukulu kwa magwiridwe antchito, osati kungokhala kufunitsitsa kupirira kusinthasintha kwakukulu. Kusintha koyamba kumakhala pa kukula kwa malo. Ngati ATR ya katundu ikwera kawiri, chiopsezo pa malonda chimakwera kawiri molingana. Kuti chiwopsezo chofananacho chikhalebe mu ndalama, wamalonda ayenera kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa mapangano kapena mapangano. Ichi si chisankho chodzitchinjiriza chozikidwa pa kusatetezeka; ndi masamu owongolera zoopsa.
Kusintha kwachiwiri kuli mu maoda oletsa kutayika. Maoda oletsa kutayika omwe ali pafupi kwambiri m'misika yosakhazikika amayamba chifukwa cha phokoso lachibadwa la kusinthasintha, zomwe zimathetsa malonda ovomerezeka asanakhale ndi malo oti apitirire. Pankhaniyi, mtunda wa lamulo loletsa kutayika uyenera kulinganizidwa ndi ATR yomwe ilipo (Average Trading Volume), osati ku ATR ya masiku omwe kusinthasintha kochepa kulipo.
Kusintha kwachitatu kuli pakusankha zolembetsa. M'malo osinthasintha kwambiri, mayendedwe amathamanga ndipo kusintha kumachitika mwadzidzidzi. Amalonda odziwa bwino ntchito amanena kuti, panthawiyi, njira yabwino ndikudikira kuti zitsimikizidwe bwino musanalowe ndikuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa malonda patsiku, ndikuyika patsogolo khalidwe kuposa kuchuluka. "Ngakhale mabungwe sakudziwonetsa okha. Ndiye bwanji tiyenera kudziwonetsa tokha ndi dzanja lonse?", adatero wogulitsa Alison Correa mu mkangano womwe unafalitsidwa ndi GainCast wokhudza kusinthasintha kwa ndalama.
Kodi wamalonda amadziika bwanji pamalo omwe zinthu sizikuyenda bwino?
Malo omwe zinthu sizisinthasintha kwenikweni ali ndi mavuto awoawo. Msika ukuyenda pang'onopang'ono, kusintha kwa zinthu kumakhala kochepa, ndipo njira zopangira zinthu zokhala ndi zolinga zazifupi zimataya mphamvu. Komabe, kupsinjika kwa kusinthasintha kwa zinthu kumakhala ndi chizindikiro chofunikira: nthawi zambiri, msika umasonkhanitsa mphamvu usanayambe kusintha kwakukulu.
Amalonda omwe amawunika Bollinger Bands amazindikira njira iyi yochepetsera kusinthasintha kwa zinthu ndikukonzekera nthawi yomwe kusinthasintha kudzakulirakuliranso. Kudikira koyenera panthawi ya kusinthasintha kochepa, popanda kukakamiza malonda osafunikira chifukwa chakuti tchati chatsegulidwa, ndi luso lomwe limasiyanitsa amalonda okhwima ndi omwe amachita malonda mopitirira muyeso chifukwa sangathe kulekerera kusayenda.
Komabe, kusinthasintha kochepa sikutanthauza kuti palibe chiopsezo. Katundu wokhala ndi kupsinjika kwa nthawi yayitali amatha kufalikira mbali zonse ziwiri, ndipo amalonda omwe sadziwa izi akhoza kugwidwa opanda malo okwanira oimika magalimoto akamasuntha.
Pamene si malonda ndiye malo abwino kwambiri
Chimodzi mwa zisankho zovuta kwambiri komanso nthawi yomweyo zomwe zimakhala zachikulire kwambiri pamalonda ndi kuzindikira nthawi yomwe chilengedwe sichikupereka mikhalidwe yabwino yogwirira ntchito. Zochitika zomwe zimakhudza kwambiri, monga misonkhano ya FOMC, deta ya kukwera kwa mitengo ku US, kapena zochitika zosayembekezereka za geopolitical, zimapangitsa nthawi yomwe kusakhazikika kumakhala kokwera kwambiri ndipo mayendedwe amitengo amakana kusanthula kulikonse kwaukadaulo.
Munthawi zimenezi, kuchepetsa kuonekera kapena kukhala kunja kwathunthu ndi chisankho chovomerezeka chaukadaulo, osati kulephera kulimba mtima. André Moraes, katswiri wofufuza za ndalama ku XP, adawona mu kuyankhulana ndi Infomoney kuti panthawi ya kusakhazikika kwakukulu pamsika wamasheya, "njira yabwino kwambiri ingakhale kukhala kunja," ndikugogomezera kuti ngakhale mabungwe azachuma aluso atayika kwambiri pansi pa mikhalidwe iyi.
Pomaliza, kusakhazikika kwa msika kumakhala kosatha. Kusintha komwe kulipo ndi mphamvu. Ndipo wamalonda amene amaphunzira kudziyika mosiyana malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa kusinthasintha komwe kulipo amagwira ntchito ndi mwayi weniweni, chifukwa sachita tsiku lililonse ngati kuti ndi chimodzimodzi.
Ngati mutenga malonda mozama, muyenera kukhala ndi nsanja yomwe ingakwanitse ntchitoyi. Ebinex Imapereka magwiridwe antchito owonekera bwino, popanda kusintha zithunzi, komanso ndi zida zomwe amalonda odziletsa amafunikira kuti agwire ntchito pamsika uliwonse. Tsegulani akaunti yanu, yambitsani KYC/2FA, ndikupikisana mu mpikisano wokhala ndi mphotho m'madola m'magulu a phindu lalikulu, kuchuluka kwa malonda apamwamba, ndi kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimayikidwa.
Kodi mwasangalala ndi zomwe zili mkati? Gawani ndi amalonda ena ndikutsatira nkhani zina pa [dzina la nsanja yapaintaneti]. blog.ebinex.com
