Kusagadzikana kwemusika ndeimwe yemashoko akajairika muhupenyu hwezuva nezuva hwekutengeserana uye, panguva imwe chete, ndeimwe yeanonyanya kunzwisiswa zvisizvo. Vatengesi vazhinji vanoona kusagadzikana senjodzi inofanira kudzivirirwa, chimwe chinhu chinoratidza njodzi kana kusagadzikana. Zvisinei, hukama nekusagadzikana hunotsanangura hunhu hwemutengesi kupfuura nzira yehunyanzvi yavanoshandisa. Kuziva kuti inoshanda riini kwavari, inoda kungwarira, uye kuti ingagadzirisa sei nzvimbo yavo kana paine kusimba kwakasiyana kwekusagadzikana chikamu chakakosha chekutarisira mashandiro.
Kusagadzikana kwezvinhu hakuna kunaka kana kuipa. Ndiwo hunhu hwemusika. Chinosarudza mashandiro emutengesi kana akatarisana nazvo ndiko kugadzirira kwavo.
Chii chinonzi kusagadzikana kwemusika uye kunozviratidza sei?
Kushanduka-shanduka kwemitengo (Volatility) inzira yekuyera kuti mutengo wechinhu unoshanduka-shanduka zvakadii munguva yakatarwa. Kushanduka-shanduka kwemitengo kunowedzera, ndiko kunowedzera kuchinja kwemitengo nekukurumidza. Kushanduka-shanduka kunowedzera kugadzikana, ndiko kunowedzera kugadzikana uye kufanotaurwa kwemafambiro ezvinhu.
Mugove unochinja-chinja pakati peR$20 neR$22 mukati memwedzi une kusagadzikana kwakaderera pane uyo unochinja-chinja pakati peR$15 neR$40 munguva imwe chete. Wekupedzisira uyu unopa mikana yakakura yekubata mafambiro emitengo, asi unowedzerawo njodzi yekurasikirwa nekukurumidza kana manejimendi asina kukwana.
Mumusika wezvemari, kusagadzikana kunobva mumhando mbiri huru. Kushanduka-shanduka kwenhoroondo kunoverengerwa zvichibva padata remitengo yapfuura, uchishandisa standard deviation kuyera kupararira kwekudzoka kana tichienzanisa neavhareji. Kushanduka-shanduka kusingatarisirwi, kune rumwe rutivi, kunoratidza tarisiro yemusika yekushanduka-shanduka mune ramangwana, inotorwa kubva pamitengo yesarudzo. Yekupedzisira inonyanya kukosha nekuti inofungidzira njodzi isati yaitika pamachati.
Chii chinokonzera kusagadzikana uye nei kuchichinja nekufamba kwenguva?
Kusagadzikana kwemusika hakungoerekana kwaitika. Kune zvikonzero zvinozivikanwa, uye kuzvinzwisisa kunobatsira vatengesi kutarisira nguva dzekuchinja kukuru uye kugadzirira pachine nguva.
Zvisarudzo zvemabhanga makuru, kunyanya zveFederal Reserve muUS, ndezvimwe zvezvinhu zvikuru zvinokonzera. Kana Fed ikakwidza kana kudzikisa mwero wechikwereti, kukanganisa kwacho kunoitika nekukurumidza mumisika yese yepasi rose. Uyezve, ruzivo rwakakosha rwehupfumi, senge nhamba dzemihoro yeUS, index yeCPI inflation, kana GDP, zvinogadzira mafambiro akasimba panguva yekuburitswa kwemari, kunyanya kana nhamba dzacho dzichisiyana netarisiro yemusika.
Zviitiko zvezvematongerwo enyika, zvakaita sekusawirirana, zvirango, uye shanduko mumutemo wekutengeserana pakati penyika huru, zvinowedzerawo kusagadzikana kamwe kamwe. Muna 2020, US VIX yakasvika mapoinzi makumi masere nemaviri panguva yekutya kukuru kwedenda, nhanho yenhoroondo yakaratidza kusava nechokwadi mumisika yepasi rose panguva iyoyo. Dambudziko remari, apo mari yakawanda inoda kukurumidza kubvisa zvinzvimbo, inogadzirawo mafungu ekusagadzikana anokanganisa midziyo isingaite seyakabatana nedambudziko rekutanga.
Kune rumwe rutivi, mamiriro ekugadzikana kwehupfumi, kukura kunofungidzirwa, uye mitemo yemari yakajeka zvinowanzo dzvinyirira kusagadzikana. Munguva idzi, musika unofamba zvakanyatsorongeka, uye mitengo hainyanyi kupindura nhau zvakanyanya.
Maitiro ekuyera kusagadzikana: ATR, Bollinger Bands, uye VIX
Mutengesi anoshanda neruzivo rwekushanduka-shanduka kwemitengo anoshandisa zviratidzo zvakananga kuti aone kusimba kwayo uye agadzirise zvisarudzo zvake zvekushanda zvichienderana nemamiriro emusika chaiwo.
Iyo ATR, kana kuti Average True Range, yakagadzirwa naJ. Welles Wilder, inoyera avhareji yekufamba kwemitengo kwenguva yakatarwa, kazhinji makenduru gumi nemana. Kana ATR yakwira, inoratidza kuti musika uri kufamba nesimba. Kana yadonha, inoratidza kuti kufamba kwacho kwakadzikama. Mukuita, iyo ATR inoshandiswa kuisa saizi yekumira nezvinangwa nenzira inoenderana nekushanduka-shanduka kwechinhu, ichidzivirira kumira nguva isati yakwana uye zvinangwa zvisingaite.
Mabhendi eBollinger, anodhirowa nzira inotenderedza mutengo zvichibva pakuchinja kwakajairika, kazhinji kuchinja kaviri pamusoro uye pasi peavhareji yekufamba kwenguva makumi maviri. Kana mabhendi akavhurika, kusagadzikana kunowedzera. Paanovhara mukumanikidzwa, musika unounganidza simba rekufamba kwakakosha. Maitiro aya ekudzikama anoteverwa nekuwedzera ndeimwe yenzira dzinoshandiswa zvakanyanya mukuongorora kwehunyanzvi.
VIX, inozivikanwa se fear index, inoyera kusagadzikana kunotarisirwa kwemusika kweS&P 500 mumazuva makumi matatu anotevera. VIX iri pasi pe20 inoratidza musika wakadzikama. Pakati pe20 ne30, kungwarira uye kusagadzikana kuri pakati nepakati zvinodiwa. Pamusoro pe30, kutya uye musika uri mudambudziko zvinoratidzwa. Kune vatengesi vekuBrazil, US VIX inyaya yakananga, sezvo ichienderana nemaitiro eIbovespa: kana kutya kukakwira muUS, mari inowanzobva mumisika iri kusimukira, ichidhonza musika wemasheya weBrazil uye ichiisa kumanikidzwa kune chaiyo.
Mutengesi anogadzirisa sei nzvimbo yake munzvimbo dzine dambudziko guru?
Kusagadzikana kukuru kwemusika kunoda kugadziriswa kwakasimba kwekushanda, kwete kungoda kutsungirira kuchinja kukuru. Kugadziriswa kwekutanga kuri muhukuru hwenzvimbo. Kana ATR yemutengi ikawedzera kaviri, njodzi pakutengeserana inopetwa kaviri zvakaenzana. Kuti njodzi yemari irambe yakafanana, mutengesi anofanira kuderedza huwandu hwezvibvumirano. Ichi hachisi chisarudzo chekudzivirira chakavakirwa pakusachengeteka; i masvomhu ekugadzirisa njodzi.
Kugadziriswa kwechipiri kuri mumaodha ekumisa kurasikirwa. Maodha ekumisa kurasikirwa ari pedyo zvakanyanya mumisika isingachinji anokonzerwa neruzha rwekuchinja-chinja, zvichigumisa kutengeserana kusati kwava nenzvimbo yekukura. Muchiitiko ichi, daro reodha yekumisa kurasikirwa rinofanira kuenzaniswa neATR yazvino (Average Trading Volume), kwete kuATR yemazuva ane kuchinja kushoma.
Kugadziriswa kwechitatu kuri mukusarudza manyorerwo emari. Munzvimbo dzine mafambiro akawandisa, kufamba kunokurumidza uye kuchinja kunoitika kamwe kamwe. Vatengesi vane ruzivo vanoti, munguva dzino, chinhu chakanaka ndechekumirira kusimbiswa kwakajeka vasati vapinda uye kuderedza huwandu hwevatengesi pazuva, vachiisa pamberi mhando pane huwandu. "Kunyangwe masangano haasi kuzviburitsa pachena. Saka sei tichifanira kuzviburitsa pachena neruoko rwakazara?", akadaro mutengesi Alison Correa muhurukuro yakaburitswa neGainCast nezvekusagadzikana kwemari.
Mutengesi anozviisa sei munzvimbo dzisina kugadzikana zvakanyanya?
Nzvimbo dzisina kugadzikana zvakanyanya dzine matambudziko adzo. Musika unofamba zvishoma nezvishoma, kuchinja-chinja kudiki, uye nzira dzekugadzira zvinhu dzine zvinangwa zvenguva pfupi dzinorasikirwa nekushanda zvakanaka. Zvisinei, kudzvanywa kwekushanduka-shanduka kune chiratidzo chakakosha: kazhinji, musika unounganidza simba usati watanga kufamba zvakanyanya.
Vatengesi vanoongorora Bollinger Bands vanoona maitiro aya ekudzikama uye vanogadzirira nguva iyo kusagadzikana kunowedzera zvakare. Kumirira kwakadzidziswa munguva dzekushanduka kushoma, pasina kumanikidza kutengeserana kusingakoshi nekuti chati yakavhurika, hunyanzvi hunoparadzanisa vatengesi vakuru kubva kune avo vanotengeserana zvakanyanya nekuti havagone kushivirira kusavapo kwekufamba.
Zvisinei, kusasimba kwakanyanya hazvirevi kusavapo kwenjodzi. Midziyo ine kudzvanywa kwenguva refu inogona kuparara zvakanyanya munzira dzese dziri mbiri, uye vatengesi vasingazive nezvenyaya iyi vanogona kubatwa vasina nzvimbo yakakwana yekumira kana kufamba kwacho kwaitika.
Kana zvisiri zvekutengesa ndiyo nzvimbo yakanakisa
Chimwe chezvisarudzo zvakaoma uye panguva imwe chete chikuru mukutengeserana ndechekuziva kana nharaunda isingape mamiriro akanaka ekushanda. Zviitiko zvine simba guru, zvakaita semisangano yeFOMC, data reUS inflation, kana zviitiko zvisingafungidzike zve geopolitical, zvinogadzira nguva apo kusagadzikana kwakakwira zvakanyanya uye mafambiro emitengo anoramba chero ongororo yehunyanzvi.
Munguva dzino, kuderedza kusvibiswa kana kusabatanidzwa zvachose chisarudzo chehunyanzvi, kwete kukundikana kweushingi. André Moraes, nyanzvi yekudyara mari kuXP, akataura mubvunzurudzo neInfomoney kuti munguva dzekushanduka-shanduka kwakanyanya mumusika wemasheya, "sarudzo yakanakisa ingave yekusabatanidzwa," achisimbisa kuti kunyangwe mari dzehunyanzvi dzakarasikirwa zvakanyanya mumamiriro ezvinhu aya.
Chekupedzisira, kusagadzikana kwemusika kunogara kwenguva refu. Chinochinja isimba. Uye mutengesi anodzidza kuzvisarudzira zvakasiyana zvichienderana nedanho rekuchinja-chinja riripo iye zvino anoshanda nerombo rakanaka, nekuti haatore zuva rega rega sekunge rakafanana.
Kana uchitora kutengeserana zvakakomba, unoda puratifomu yakakodzera basa racho. Ebinex Inopa mashandiro akajeka, pasina kugadzirisa mifananidzo, uye nezvishandiso zvinodiwa nevatengesi vane hunhu kuti vashandise munzvimbo ipi zvayo yemusika. Vhura account yako, shandisa KYC/2FA, uye kukwikwidzana mumakwikwi ane mibairo mumadhora muzvikamu zvepurofiti yepamusoro, huwandu hwekutengesa hwepamusoro, uye huwandu hwedhipoziti yepamusoro.
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