Izinga lenzala laseMelika liguquguquko lwezoqoqosho olukhulu oluchaphazela kakhulu indlela ezisebenza ngayo iimarike zemali zehlabathi. Xa iFederal Reserve itshintsha iFederal Funds Rate, isiphumo sisasazeka ngokukhawuleza kwiimali, amasheya, ii-crypto assets, kunye neempahla kwihlabathi liphela. Kumrhwebi osebenza kwi-forex, ii-indices, okanye i-crypto, ukungawunaki olu lwazi kukusebenza ngaphandle kwenxalenye ebalulekileyo yomxholo.
Isebenza njani inzala yaseMelika?
I-Federal Funds Rate yireyithi ehlawuliswana ngayo amaziko emali aseMelika ngemali mboleko yexesha elifutshane. I-Federal Reserve iyibeka kwiintlanganiso ze-FOMC, ezibanjwa amaxesha asibhozo ngonyaka, ngokusekelwe kwidatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ingqesho, kunye nokukhula koqoqosho.
NgoMeyi ka-2026, izinga liza kuhlala liphakathi kwe-3,50% kunye ne-3,75% ngonyaka, emva kokunciphisa kathathu okwenziweyo kulo lonke unyaka ka-2025. I-Fed ibisoloko ibonisa ukuba utshintsho olongezelelweyo luxhomekeke kwindlela yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, okuye kwanda kwakhona ekuqaleni kuka-2026 ngenxa yempembelelo yeengxabano kuMbindi Mpuma kumaxabiso amandla.
Kutheni izinga lokutshintshiselana kwemali laseMelika lichaphazela idola?
Ingqiqo icacile: amazinga aphezulu enzala eMelika enza ukuba ii-asethi ezixabisa idola zibe nenzuzo ngakumbi xa zithelekiswa nezinye iimali. Ngenxa yoko, abatyali-mali behlabathi batshintsha imali baye kwiidola befuna imbuyekezo engcono ngomngcipheko omncinci, ngaloo ndlela bomeleza imali yaseMelika.
Iqonga elibalulekileyo labarhwebi abazimiseleyo. Ebinex Isebenza ngendlela ecacileyo, iPix (inkqubo yokuhlawula ngoko nangoko yaseBrazil), kunye nokurhoxisa imali ngokukhawuleza. Vula iakhawunti yakho, yenza i-KYC kunye ne-2FA zisebenze, kwaye ukhuphisane kwiintshatsheli.
I-DXY, isalathisi esilinganisa idola xa ithelekiswa nebhasikithi yeemali ezintandathu zehlabathi, idla ngokunyuka xa i-Fed inyusa amazinga enzala okanye ibonisa ukuma okungqongqo ngakumbi. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, xa umjikelo utshintshela ekuncitshisweni, idola ilahlekelwa ngumtsalane kwaye idla ngokunikezela. Ekupheleni kuka-2025, emva kokuncitshiswa kwesithathu ngokulandelelana kwereyithi yi-Fed, i-DXY irhwebe ngaphantsi kwenqanaba le-98,40, nto leyo edibanisa umkhwa obuthathaka.
Inzala iyichaphazela njani iBitcoin kunye neeasethi ze-crypto?
I-Bitcoin kunye nezinye ii-cryptocurrencies ziziphatha njengezinto ezinobungozi kwaye zisabela ngononophelo kumjikelo wenzala yaseMelika. Ngo-2022, ukuqina kwemali okunamandla kakhulu kwiminyaka emininzi kwakhokelela kwi-Bitcoin ukuba iwe ngaphezulu kwama-60%. Kwelinye icala, ulindelo lokuncitshiswa kwamaxabiso ngo-2024 lwalulindele ukubuyiselwa okukhulu kwimarike ye-crypto.
Le ndlela ilandelayo: amazinga enzala aphezulu anyusa iindleko zethuba lenkunzi. Ukuba ibhondi yaseMelika ihlawula imbuyekezo yokwenyani ngokukhuselekileyo, ingxoxo yokwabela ii-asethi eziguquguqukayo ezifana ne-crypto iyabuthathaka. Nangona kunjalo, xa i-Fed inciphisa amazinga enzala, ulwelo lwehlabathi luyanda kwaye abatyali-mali bafuna ii-asethi ezinengeniso ephezulu, nto leyo enceda imarike ye-crypto.
Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso abaluleke ngokufanayo nesigqibo ngokwaso. NgoSeptemba 2025, ukuncitshiswa kwamanqaku angama-25 esiseko kwakusele kulindelwe kakhulu yimarike, kwaye amathuba okuba afikelele kwi-96% ngaphambi kwesibhengezo ayesele efikelele kwixabiso eliphantsi. Impembelelo kumaxabiso yayiphakathi kuba intshukumo yayisele ifikelele kwixabiso eliphantsi.
Yintoni iploti enamachaphaza kwaye kutheni abarhwebi beyilandela?
Ukongeza kwisigqibo ngokwaso, i-Fed ipapasha into ebizwa ngokuba yi-dot plot, itshathi ebonisa uqikelelo lomntu ngamnye welungu le-FOMC malunga nendlela yokulandela amazinga enzala kwiminyaka ezayo. Olu xwebhu ludla ngokubangela ukuguquguquka okukhulu kunesaziso ngokwaso, njengoko lutyhila ukuba ikomiti ithambekele ekunciphiseni okanye ekugcineni amazinga enzala kwiinyanga ezilandelayo.
Okokuqala, into ebonwa yimarike kwi-dot plot ngumsantsa ophakathi kweengqikelelo ze-Fed kunye noko abathathi-nxaxheba sele bebeke amaxabiso kuko. Xa imarike ibheja kwiindleko ezingaphezulu kuneeprojekthi ze-Fed, naluphi na uphawu olulumkileyo oluvela kwikomiti lunokubangela utshintsho olukhawulezileyo kwiimpahla ezinobungozi.
Umjikelo wenzala yaseMelika uyichaphazela njani iBrazil?
Impembelelo ifikelela eBrazil ngeendlela ezimbini eziphambili. Eyokuqala yizinga lokutshintshiselana: xa amazinga enzala e-US enyuka, umahluko phakathi kwezinga le-US kunye nezinga le-Brazilian Selic uyancipha, nto leyo enciphisa ukutsala umdla worhwebo lwe-carry kwi-reais kwaye ibeka uxinzelelo kwizinga lokutshintshiselana.
Into yesibini kukuhamba kwemali: kwiindawo ezinenzala ephezulu e-US, abatyali-mali bamazwe ngamazwe badla ngokurhoxisa imali kwiimarike ezisakhulayo ukuze bayitshintshele kwiiasethi zaseMelika. Ngaphezu koko, iindleko zehlabathi zemali ziyanyuka kunye namazinga enzala aseMelika, nto leyo echaphazela iinkampani ezithumela ngaphandle, i-Ibovespa (isalathisi semarike yesitokhwe saseBrazil), kunye nokusasazeka kwetyala kwimarike yasekhaya.
Ungarhweba njani ngeentsuku apho kwenziwa izigqibo ngenzala?
Iintsuku zokubhengeza inzala eMelika zifuna uqeqesho olongezelelekileyo. Imakethi ithambekele ekuzibekeni kwindawo yayo ngaphambi kokuba idatha ikhutshwe, nto leyo edala iintshukumo ezilindelekileyo ezinokujika ngokupheleleyo emva kwesibhengezo. Ngaphezu koko, intetho kaJerome Powell emva kwesigqibo idla ngokunyusa amaxabiso ngaphezu kwenani ngokwalo.
Ukunciphisa ukuvezwa ngaphambi kwesibhengezo, ukulinda impendulo yokuqala, kunye nokuvavanya kuphela iimeko zokuseta ziindlela ezigcina imali ngexesha lokungaqiniseki okukhulu kwikhalenda yezoqoqosho.
Ngaba ukonwabele umxholo? Yabelana ngawo nabanye abarhwebi kwaye ulandele uhlalutyo oluthe kratya kwi [link to analysis website]. blog.ebinex.com
