Ukuguquguquka kwemarike yenye yezona zinto zixhaphakileyo kubomi bemihla ngemihla borhwebo, kwaye kwangaxeshanye, yenye yezona zinto zichazwa gwenxa. Abathengisi abaninzi baphatha ukuguquguquka njengesongelo ekufuneka liphetshwe, into ebonisa ingozi okanye ukungazinzi. Nangona kunjalo, ubudlelwane nokuguquguquka buchaza umgangatho womrhwebi ngaphezu kwesicwangciso sobugcisa abasisebenzisayo. Ukwazi ukuba kusebenza nini kubo, xa kufuna ukulumka, kunye nendlela yokulungisa indawo xa kukho amandla ahlukeneyo okuguquguquka yinxalenye ebalulekileyo yolawulo lokusebenza.
Ukuguquguquka kwezinto akukuhle kwaye akubi ngokwemvelo. Luphawu lwemarike. Into egqiba ukusebenza komrhwebi xa ejongene noku kukulungela kwakhe.
Yintoni ukuguquguquka kwemarike kwaye kubonakala njani?
Ukuguquguquka kwezinto yindlela yokulinganisa ukuba ixabiso lempahla litshintshatshintsha kangakanani kwixesha elithile. Okukhona ukuguquguquka kwezinto kuphezulu, kokukhona ixabiso litshintsha ngokukhawuleza nangokukhawuleza. Okukhona ukuguquguquka kwezinto kuphantsi, kokukhona ukuguquguquka kwezinto kuzinzile kwaye kuqikelelwa ngakumbi.
Isitokhwe esitshintshatshintshayo phakathi kwe-R$20 kunye ne-R$22 kwinyanga yonke sinokuguquguquka okuphantsi kakhulu kuneso sitshintshatshintshayo phakathi kwe-R$15 kunye ne-R$40 kwisithuba esinye. Esi sabelo sinikezela ngamathuba amakhulu okubamba ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso, kodwa sikwanyusa umngcipheko wokulahleka ngokukhawuleza ukuba ulawulo alwanelanga.
Kwimarike yezemali, ukuguquguquka kuvela kwiintlobo ezimbini eziphambili. Ukuguquguquka kwembali kubalwa ngokusekelwe kwidatha yamaxabiso adlulileyo, kusetyenziswa ukuphambuka okuqhelekileyo ukulinganisa ukusasazwa kwembuyekezo xa kuthelekiswa nomndilili. Ukuguquguquka okungafunekiyo, kwelinye icala, kubonisa ulindelo lwemarike lokuguquguquka kwexesha elizayo, oluthathwe kumaxabiso okhetho. Oku kokugqibela kubaluleke kakhulu kuba kuqikelela imeko-bume yomngcipheko ngaphambi kokuba ivele kwiitshathi.
Yintoni ebangela ukuguquguquka kwaye kutheni kutshintsha ngokuhamba kwexesha?
Ukuguquguquka kwemarike akuveli ngokungalindelekanga. Kunezizathu eziqondakalayo, kwaye ukuqonda kwabo kunceda abarhwebi balindele amaxesha okuguquguquka okukhulu kwaye balungiselele kwangaphambili.
Izigqibo zebhanki ephakathi, ingakumbi ezo zeFederal Reserve e-US, ziphakathi kwezinto eziphambili ezibangela oku. Xa iFed inyusa okanye yehlisa amazinga enzala, impembelelo ivakala ngokukhawuleza kuzo zonke iimarike zehlabathi. Ngaphezu koko, idatha efanelekileyo yezoqoqosho, efana namanani omvuzo wase-US, i-CPI inflation index, okanye i-GDP, ivelisa iintshukumo ezibukhali ngexesha lokukhululwa, ingakumbi xa amanani ehluka kulindelo lwemarike.
Iziganeko zezopolitiko, ezinje ngeengxabano, izohlwayo, kunye notshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo phakathi kwezoqoqosho ezinkulu, nazo zikhulisa ukuguquguquka ngequbuliso. Ngo-2020, i-US VIX yafikelela kuma-82 amanqaku ngexesha lencopho yoloyiko lobhubhane, inqanaba lembali elalibonakalisa izinga lokungaqiniseki kwiimarike zehlabathi ngelo xesha. Iingxaki zokungabi namali, xa iimali ezinkulu kufuneka zithengise izikhundla ngokukhawuleza, zikwadala amaza okuguquguquka achaphazela izinto ezibonakala zingadibani nengxaki yokuqala.
Kwelinye icala, iimeko zozinzo kwezoqoqosho, ukukhula okuqikelelweyo, kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yemali ecacileyo zithanda ukucinezela ukuguquguquka. Ngeli xesha, imakethi ihamba ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye amaxabiso awasabelanga kangako kwiindaba.
Indlela yokulinganisa ukuguquguquka: ATR, iiBollinger Bands, kunye neVIX
Umrhwebi osebenza ngokuqonda ukuguquguquka kwesimo usebenzisa izalathisi ezithile ukulinganisa ubunzulu bayo nokulinganisa izigqibo zakhe zokusebenza ngokwemeko yemarike yokwenyani.
I-ATR, okanye i-Average True Range, eyenziwe ngu-J. Welles Wilder, ilinganisa i-avareji ye-amplitude ye-avareji ye-avareji ye-avareji kwixesha elithile, idla ngokuba ngamakhandlela ali-14. Xa i-ATR inyuka, ibonisa ukuba imakethi ishukuma ngamandla. Xa iwa, ibonisa ukuba iintshukumo zilawulwa ngakumbi. Ngokwenyani, i-ATR isetyenziselwa ukwenza ubungakanani be-stop kunye ne-target ngendlela ehambelana nokuguquguquka kwangoku kwe-asethi, ithintela zombini ii-stop zangaphambi kwexesha kunye ne-target ezingenakwenzeka.
IiBollinger Bands, zona, zizoba umjelo ojikeleze ixabiso ngokusekelwe kutshintsho oluqhelekileyo, ngokuqhelekileyo ukuphambuka okubini ngaphezulu nangaphantsi komndilili ohambayo wexesha elingama-20. Xa iibhendi zivuleka, ukuguquguquka kuba phezulu. Xa zivala ngokuxinana, imakethi iqokelela amandla ukuze ishukume ngakumbi. Le ndlela yokuncitshiswa elandelwa kukwandiswa yenye yezona setingi zisetyenziswa kakhulu kuhlalutyo lobugcisa.
I-VIX, eyaziwa ngokuba yi-fear index, ilinganisa ukuguquguquka okulindelweyo kwimarike kwi-S&P 500 kwiintsuku ezingama-30 ezizayo. I-VIX engaphantsi kwama-20 ibonisa imarike ezolileyo. Phakathi kwama-20 nama-30, kufuneka ulumko kunye nokungazinzi okuphakathi. Ngaphezulu kwama-30, kufuneka uloyiko kunye nemarike ekwimeko yengxaki. Kubathengisi baseBrazil, i-US VIX sisibhengezo ngqo, njengoko sihambelana nokuziphatha kwe-Ibovespa: xa uloyiko luphakama e-US, imali idla ngokushiya iimarike ezisakhulayo, irhuqa imarike yesitokhwe saseBrazil kwaye ibeke uxinzelelo kwizinto zokwenyani.
Umrhwebi ulungisa njani indawo yakhe kwiindawo eziguquguqukayo kakhulu?
Ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwemarike kufuna uhlengahlengiso olucacileyo lokusebenza, kungekuphela nje ukuzimisela ukumelana nokuguquguquka okukhulu. Uhlengahlengiso lokuqala lukwisayizi yesikhundla. Ukuba i-ATR yempahla iphindaphindeka kabini, umngcipheko ngorhwebo ngalunye uphindaphindeka kabini ngokulinganayo. Ukuze kugcinwe umngcipheko ofanayo kwimali, umrhwebi kufuneka anciphise ubungakanani bezabelo okanye iikhontrakthi. Esi asisosigqibo sokuzikhusela esisekelwe kukungakhuseleki; sizibalo zolawulo lomngcipheko.
Uhlengahlengiso lwesibini lukwiiodolo zokuyeka ukulahlekelwa. Iiodolo zokuyeka ukulahlekelwa ezikufutshane kakhulu kwiimarike eziguquguqukayo zibangelwa yingxolo eqhelekileyo yokuguquguquka, okuphelisa urhwebo olusebenzayo ngobuchwephesha ngaphambi kokuba lube nendawo yokuphuhlisa. Kule meko, umgama weodolo yokuyeka ukulahlekelwa kufuneka ulinganiswe kwi-ATR yangoku (i-Average Trading Volume), kungekhona kwi-ATR yeentsuku ezinokuguquguquka okuncinci.
Uhlengahlengiso lwesithathu lukwindlela yokukhetha izinto ezifakiweyo. Kwiimeko eziguquguqukayo kakhulu, iintshukumo zikhawuleza kwaye ukuguquka kwezinto kwenzeka ngequbuliso. Abarhwebi abanamava baxela ukuba, kwezi zihlandlo, eyona nto ifanelekileyo kukulinda ukuqinisekiswa okucacileyo ngaphambi kokungena nokunciphisa inani leentengiso ngosuku, bebeka phambili umgangatho kunobuninzi. “Kwanamaziko awazivezi. Kutheni ke ngoko kufuneka siziveze ngesandla esipheleleyo?”, utshilo umrhwebi uAlison Correa kwingxoxo-mpikiswano eyasasazwa yiGainCast malunga nokuguquguquka kweedola.
Umrhwebi uzibeka njani kwindawo apho izinto zingahambi kakuhle khona?
Iindawo eziguquguqukayo kancinci zinemingeni yazo. Imarike ihamba kancinci, utshintsho luncinci, kwaye amaqhinga okulinganisa iithagethi zexesha elifutshane alahlekelwa kukusebenza kakuhle. Nangona kunjalo, uxinzelelo lokuguquguquka lunesibonakaliso esibalulekileyo: ngokubanzi, imarike iqokelela amandla ngaphambi kokuba intshukumo ibe nkulu ngakumbi.
Abarhwebi abajonga iBollinger Bands bayazichonga ezi ndlela zokuncitshiswa kwexabiso baze balungiselele ixesha apho ukuguquguquka kwexabiso kukhula kwakhona. Ukulinda okuqeqeshekileyo ngexesha lokuguquguquka okuphantsi, ngaphandle kokunyanzela urhwebo olungeyomfuneko kuba nje itshathi ivuliwe, sisakhono esahlula abarhwebi abakhulileyo kwabo bathengisa ngokugqithisileyo kuba bengenakukunyamezela ukungabikho kokunyakaza.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuguquguquka okuphantsi akuthethi ukungabikho komngcipheko. Iiasethi ezinoxinzelelo olude zinokuqhekeka ngamandla kuzo zombini iindlela, kwaye abarhwebi abangayaziyo le meko banokubanjwa bengenandawo yaneleyo yokuyeka xa kusenzeka intshukumo.
Xa ungengorhwebo yeyona ndawo ilungileyo yokuma
Esinye sezona zigqibo zinzima kwaye kwangaxeshanye zizigqibo ezivuthiweyo kurhwebo kukuqonda xa imeko-bume inganikeli iimeko ezifanelekileyo zokusebenza. Iziganeko ezinefuthe elikhulu, ezifana neentlanganiso ze-FOMC, idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-US, okanye iziganeko ze-geopolitical ezingalindelekanga, zenza amaxesha apho ukuguquguquka kuphezulu kakhulu kwaye iintshukumo zamaxabiso zichasa naluphi na uhlalutyo lobugcisa.
Kule mizuzu, ukunciphisa ukuvezwa okanye ukuhlala ngaphandle ngokupheleleyo sisigqibo sobuchwephesha esisemthethweni, kungekhona ukusilela kwenkalipho. U-André Moraes, umhlalutyi wotyalo-mali kwi-XP, waphawula kudliwanondlebe ne-Infomoney ukuba ngamaxesha okuguquguquka okukhulu kwimarike yesitokhwe, "ukhetho olufanelekileyo kukuhlala ngaphandle," egxininisa ukuba neengxowa-mali zobungcali ziye zalahlekelwa kakhulu phantsi kwezi meko.
Okokugqibela, ukuguquguquka kwemarike kuhlala kuhleli. Olona tshintsho lubalulekileyo bubunzulu. Kwaye umrhwebi ofunda ukuzibeka ngokwahlukileyo ngokwenqanaba langoku lokuguquguquka usebenza ngenzuzo yokwenene, kuba abayiphathi yonke imihla ngokungathi iyafana.
Ukuba uthatha urhwebo nzulu, udinga iqonga elilungele umsebenzi. Ebinex Ibonelela ngokusebenza okucacileyo, ngaphandle kokuguqulwa kwemizobo, kunye nezixhobo ezifunekayo kubarhwebi abaqeqeshekileyo ukuze basebenze kuyo nayiphi na imeko yemarike. Vula iakhawunti yakho, yenza i-KYC/2FA isebenze, kwaye ukhuphisane kwiintshatsheli ngamabhaso ngeedola kwiindidi zenzuzo ephezulu, umthamo ophezulu wokurhweba, kunye nomthamo ophezulu wedipozithi.
Ngaba ukonwabele umxholo? Yabelana ngawo nabanye abarhwebi kwaye ulandele amanqaku amaninzi kwi [igama leqonga leendaba zoluntu]. blog.ebinex.com
